Science 25 March 2011:
Vol. 331 no. 6024 pp. 1510-1511
DOI: 10.1126/science.331.6024.1510


Peak Oil Production May Already Be Here

by Richard A. Kerr


www.sciencemag.org/content/331/6024/1510.summary?ref=topst

I think this makes a very good case that we DO NOT need new taxes to push our economy away from oil dependency. The free market will do this just fine. As oil supplies get tighter (or, more accurately, as demand continues to rise), prices will go up. Other energy sources will become more competitive, and private enterprise will see a potential for profit in alternative sources.

No need for congressional mandates to burn corn.

No need for Federal CAFE standards.

I think we are too busy getting ourselves involved in another civil war to worry much about new taxes right now anyway. Hooray

jdeere5220 wrote:


That model doesn't work here for two reasons.

1 Peak oil does not produce a gradual increase in prices, slowly making oil less competitive; prices will rise quickly way beyond what is economical. The rise will be preceded by highly volatile prices creating uncertainty and frantic speculation about energy futures, but will ultimately settle at prices which are multiples of todays prices. Whenever it starts it will all happen within a few years, not decades.

2. Energy infrastructure: power plants, transportation vehicles, homes, appliances and equipment, have an economic life of 10-40 years and in the case of power plants, homes and automobiles are very expensive to replace. That means in the meantime we are stuck consuming oil at market prices that will throw us into a recession and more or less stop economic growth for decades.

If we wait for peak oil, facts one and two mean that even if we pulled out all the stops to replace the current vehicles and build power plants or whatever infrastructure we need to support the new transportation regime we would be competing with the whole world trying to do the same thing at the same time which would drive up demand way beyond supply capacity so the prices of technologies and materials needed to replace the current infrastructure would skyrocket. And we would be buying most of them from whatever countries are ahead of the curve on alternative fuel technologies, i.e where governments have made regulations that created a market for alternatives. The conversion process would take a few decades and the economy would suffer all the while.


It makes more sense to gradually build a diverse energy portfolio to decrease the risks associated with any one source- especially a source that we know ends badly. That won't happen without government intervention. This has the added benefit of consuming oil more slowly thus delaying the inevitable onset of peak oil and ultimately lessening the impact when it happens - whenever that might be. Plus it will decrease our trade deficit.

Of course if we have already arrived at peak oil we are f...ed. But at least you can be happy that our government did nothing to prepare for it.

Occam wrote:


I suppose that might encapsulate the basic differences in our philosophies. I believe that individuals and private enterprise can accomplish amazing things in a very short time, in spite of government intervention and meddling.

You believe that nothing good happens unless the government does it for us.

These are diametrically opposed viewpoints, but either way we are all soon going to be burning less oil, which should make you happy. I would prefer to be burning less oil without new carbon taxes, but I'm no longer going to get my pants in a bunch over things I can't control.

Does anyone know how to use a spellchecker with this new forum software?

That's certainly inaccurate. No one would believe that.

Rootwitch wrote:



......there sure are a lot of people out there that want the government to do everything for them and protect them from everything, now that I believe

jdeere5220 wrote:


Where in the last two years of posts have I said nothing good happens unless the government does it for us? Even here I don't want the government to do it for us but rather to provide the market incentives for private industry to get it done.

Can you provide one credible scenario how private enterprise can switch the nation over from oil dependency in a few years and at a cost that wouldn't pull down the economy? You can't possibly believe that.

Without government intervention cars today would be averaging 19 dirty miles per gallon instead of 28 clean mpg and peak oil would hit us all the sooner and harder. What little progress we have made in reducing oil dependency is due to regulations.

Can you show me one example in the world where peoples have thrived without government or with a laisez faire approach to capitalism? There are none. I am afraid you have a naive utopian idea of how capitalism works, it only provides a stable prosperous quality of life friendly to democratic ideals with appropriate government laws and a progressive tax system.

Our energy infrastructure is a case in point where government leadership is required.

"Can you show me one example in the world where peoples have thrived without government or with a laisez faire approach to capitalism?"

Tisch Mills, WI. Sign coming into town from all directions states: Tisch Mills, No Mayor, No City Council, Life's Good!!!!!!

TISCH MILLS, WI Demographic Information *


Estimated Current Population: 0
Population: 20
White Population: 20
Black Population: 0
Hispanic Population: 1
Asian Population: 0
Hawaiian Population: 0
Indian Population: 0
Other Population: 0
Male Population: 11
Female Population: 9
Avg House Value: $60,000.00
Avg Household Income: $28,125.00
Avg Persons Per Household: 2.00
Median Age: 33.50
Median Age (Male): 37.80
Median Age (Female): 12.50

A bit worried about an Estimated Current Population: 0 )

Occam wrote:


"Even here I don't want the government to do it for us but rather to provide the market incentives for private industry to get it done."

Translation:
Bigger government
Higher taxes
More regulations
political "partnerships" with favored private industry (GE comes to mind)
More giveaways for freeloaders

Crony Capitalism.