Welcome, Guest

TOPIC: Tracking the Heat

Tracking the Heat 2 years, 1 month ago #9457

  • Occam
  • OFFLINE
  • Knowledge Dangerous
  • Posts: 482
  • Karma: -783

Re: Tracking the Heat 2 years ago #9525

  • Occam
  • OFFLINE
  • Knowledge Dangerous
  • Posts: 482
  • Karma: -783


Xracer should have gone double or nothing this year, but probably thought he'd be Raptured by now. Despite 2011 not yet being in the top 10 warmest years so far, it looks like I still have about a 44% chance of winning three years straight. That and $3.5 will get me a Cappucinno and teasing rights. It should be fun to watch as I think it will come down to the wire as things heat up now that La Nina is about done.
Last Edit: 2 years ago by Occam.

Re: Tracking the Heat 2 years ago #9526

  • Binford
  • OFFLINE
  • Knowledge Dangerous
  • Posts: 174
  • Karma: 1
So explain to me why where I live there is still 10-12 feet of snow in the mountains? Roads through mountain passes that are generally open by Memorial Day weekend that are typically open are still closed. I can look out my kitchen window and see a ton of snow on the mountains as to where typically this time of year there is no visible snow, and mountains are green and not white.

Re: Tracking the Heat 2 years ago #9527

  • Occam
  • OFFLINE
  • Knowledge Dangerous
  • Posts: 482
  • Karma: -783
Binford wrote:
So explain to me why where I live there is still 10-12 feet of snow in the mountains? Roads through mountain passes that are generally open by Memorial Day weekend that are typically open are still closed. I can look out my kitchen window and see a ton of snow on the mountains as to where typically this time of year there is no visible snow, and mountains are green and not white.


Your mountain is not the globe.

Re: Tracking the Heat 2 years ago #9528

  • Binford
  • OFFLINE
  • Knowledge Dangerous
  • Posts: 174
  • Karma: 1
I guess that was an easy way out....

www.isthereglobalcooling.com/

I guess the bottom line is that everybody including you have thier opinion on why and what causes temperature changes around the world.

Re: Tracking the Heat 2 years ago #9529

  • Occam
  • OFFLINE
  • Knowledge Dangerous
  • Posts: 482
  • Karma: -783
Binford wrote:
I guess that was an easy way out....

www.isthereglobalcooling.com/

I guess the bottom line is that everybody including you have thier opinion on why and what causes temperature changes around the world.


Your confusing local with global and weather with climate. If a more elaborate explantion is what you want then try this.

Occam wrote:
www.newscientist.com/article/dn20141-bla...-british-floods.html

I can't figure why it is so difficult for so many people to understand the difference between climate and weather, and that while all weather depends on climate, climate is more predictable than weather.

It's analogous to this. If you want to create a list of the April 15th daily high temperatures in Knoxville during the 20th century just throw 6 dice a hundred times and you have a pretty good representation - ranging from 6-36C and most around 21C. Climate predictions are saying to get the 21st century temperatures you need to throw 7 dice. The climate determines the number of dice, the weather is left to the tumble of the dice.

Likewise while I can't tell what numbers will come up on the next throw of the dice, I can tell you with high confidence what the average value will be if you throw the 7 dice 100 times: 24.5 +/- 2. Understanding the climate is analagous to knowing how many die are thrown.

So if you throw a high number like 36 is that because you are throwing 7 dice instead of 6? It's a naive question. The answer is you are far more likely to throw a 36 with 7 die than with 6, so if 36 is an undesirable outcome then you had better play with 6 rather than 7 die.

That's what this researcher did for flood prediction, he threw the die thousands of times, with and without the extra die to see what happens, ie. he ran the models with and without greenhouse gas increases.
Last Edit: 2 years ago by Occam.

Re: Tracking the Heat 2 years ago #9530

  • Rootwitch
  • OFFLINE
  • Newbie Burner
  • Posts: 63
  • Karma: -2
I guess that was an easy way out....


Well, think about it this way. At any given instant, it would be surprising if at your location, things are "average". You have more snow than normal. A month from now, it could be drier than normal. Someone in Malaysia may say it's been 10 degrees warmer than usual for the last month. Texasn may be having an historic drought. Or, maybe not.

Any one of these observations may get used to support a certain viewpoint, but in terms of global climate, they don't matter. There, you have to take all the information, as best you can, and average it together, with the result being that almost nowhere is exactly average.
Dell Point Europa

Re: Tracking the Heat 2 years ago #9531

  • Occam
  • OFFLINE
  • Knowledge Dangerous
  • Posts: 482
  • Karma: -783
Rootwitch wrote:
I guess that was an easy way out....


Well, think about it this way. At any given instant, it would be surprising if at your location, things are "average". You have more snow than normal. A month from now, it could be drier than normal. Someone in Malaysia may say it's been 10 degrees warmer than usual for the last month. Texasn may be having an historic drought. Or, maybe not.

Any one of these observations may get used to support a certain viewpoint, but in terms of global climate, they don't matter. There, you have to take all the information, as best you can, and average it together, with the result being that almost nowhere is exactly average.


Well said, but I like doing analogies - granted it was long winded. lol


Hey, what's with this new forum software: I can't paste the smiley faces in, the fonts all have to be changed manually by typing in bbcode, images have to be bracketed manually, etc. The old software was more user friendly if not as pretty.
Last Edit: 2 years ago by Occam.

Re: Tracking the Heat 2 years ago #9542

  • Binford
  • OFFLINE
  • Knowledge Dangerous
  • Posts: 174
  • Karma: 1
So I noticed that there was nothing said about the link that I posted above. Here are a couple more.

news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02...28-mars-warming.html

www.livescience.com/1349-sun-blamed-warming-earth-worlds.html

www.americanthinker.com/2007/07/global_w...d_solar_radia_1.html

www.drroyspencer.com/

Not to say that man doesn't have an effect on climate, but I think that there is more things to consider. What caused the polar ice caps to melt thousands of years ago? You can't blame that one on man and his "greenhouse gases". My opinion is that it is just a natural cycle the earth is going through and modern man happens to notice it changing. And as I stated above man is probably playing a role in what is going on, but I don't think it is the greatest influence. Read in the paper today where snow is accumulating in other parts of Northern Greenland and melting in others. In a couple of those links above they talk about other planets in the solar system warming as well. As far as I know man has no influence on their climates. Not trying to start an arguement or be ignorant to others opinion. As I stated above in the previous post everybody has their opinion on why. I guess the biggest question I have is if people are blaming modern man for the current melting of the polar ice caps what caused it so many thousands of years ago? We all have seen pictures showing where a majority of the earth at one time was covered in ice, where did it go? And what caused it to go away?

Re: Tracking the Heat 2 years ago #9544

  • Occam
  • OFFLINE
  • Knowledge Dangerous
  • Posts: 482
  • Karma: -783
Binford wrote:
So I noticed that there was nothing said about the link that I posted above. Here are a couple more.

news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02...28-mars-warming.html

www.livescience.com/1349-sun-blamed-warming-earth-worlds.html

www.americanthinker.com/2007/07/global_w...d_solar_radia_1.html

www.drroyspencer.com/

Not to say that man doesn't have an effect on climate, but I think that there is more things to consider. What caused the polar ice caps to melt thousands of years ago? You can't blame that one on man and his "greenhouse gases". My opinion is that it is just a natural cycle the earth is going through and modern man happens to notice it changing. And as I stated above man is probably playing a role in what is going on, but I don't think it is the greatest influence. Read in the paper today where snow is accumulating in other parts of Northern Greenland and melting in others. In a couple of those links above they talk about other planets in the solar system warming as well. As far as I know man has no influence on their climates. Not trying to start an arguement or be ignorant to others opinion. As I stated above in the previous post everybody has their opinion on why. I guess the biggest question I have is if people are blaming modern man for the current melting of the polar ice caps what caused it so many thousands of years ago? We all have seen pictures showing where a majority of the earth at one time was covered in ice, where did it go? And what caused it to go away?


I didn't respond to your questions because they have been answered before, many times here over the last few years and, sorry if I am wrong, but I don't believe you are sincerely interested in the answers. Apparently you didn't care enough to read past the headline of your own articles. If you had, the National Geo and Live Science articles for example, you would have seen they answered some of your questions. They lead with a teaser headline that has a contrarian statement which you picked up on - based on one mans opinion, but then the claim is shot down in the body of the article by experts in the field. Or you could read a primer on iceages: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/home.html

If someone chooses to believe a few science cranks and political bloggers over the overwhelming majority of climate scientists, then there is certainly nothing I could say to shake that belief. A belief that is not arrived at through facts and reason can not be changed through facts and reason. A case in point: newsfeed.time.com/2011/05/24/harold-camp...lly-happen-saturday/

Since I haven't done it yet, when I have time to compose my thoughts on the subject, I will share my personal opinion on GW and how I think we should react to it and why. Yes, I can hear the guffaws from the forum now. But if you look carefully at my posts over the last few years you will see I have not expressed my opinion on the subject. My posts are about the opinions of the scientific community, facts, papers, news, data or arguments shooting down poorly reasoned opinions or falsehoods, which is more compelling than my personal opinion. Anyway, I think personal opinions are not nearly as interesting or informative as how someone arrives at them.

The other reason I haven't shared my personal opinion is that I think most people are far too enamored of their own opinions and should spend less time voicing them and more time listening and learning from informed disinterested sources. Also once someone voices a personal opinion and someone else attacks it, they take it personally, get defensive and feel compelled to defend it no matter what. This closes the mind to other possibilies. Anyway, when I get in the mood and have the time I'll write up my views - once for the record, not that anyone here gives a hoot.
Last Edit: 2 years ago by Occam.
Time to create page: 0.91 seconds
Best free joomla themes